The 57th Presidential Election
Change #3-April 27, 2012: Rasmussen now reports that Mitt Romney has for the first time taken a narrow lead in the state of Florida. Romney leads Obama 46%-45% in the Sunshine State. Each candidate now leads in 25 states. Obama has a one point lead nationally and a 302-236 lead in the electoral college. The flip of Florida makes the "solid South" solid again with Romney having reversed all three of the southern states Obama had won in 2008.
Change #2-April 25, 2012: Gold Standard polling firm Rasmussen Reports has released a new poll of Virginia, indicating that Mitt Romney now has the lead there by a 45%-44% margin. Remember that The Map does not rate states as toss-ups. This result shows Obama's tenuous position in the upper south continuing to weakern. That switches 13 electoral votes from Obama to Romney, making the tally 331-207. Romney leads in 24 states now and Obama leads in 26.
Change #1-April 14, 2012: Gold Standard polling firm Rasmussen Reports has released its first poll indicating a change in the configuration of the 2008 results. Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama in North Carolina by a margin of 46%-44%. So North Carolina changes from Obama red to Romney blue on the election map. Also note the shade of blue used on the map has been changed slightly to make it consistent with the blue used for Republicans throughout this web site. The table at the bottom of The Map also now reflects Rasmussen's daily popular vote survey. Obama still leads in the electoral college by a 344-194 margin.
Original-January 26, 2012: The map you see above starts with the states allocated as they were in 2008 on Election night. The electoral vote totals however are adjusted for the 2012 reapportionment. A total of five electoral votes have shifted away from the twenty eight red states that Obama won and into the twenty two blue states that McCain won. Most notably Texas gained four of those seats and Utah gained one while Ohio and New York lost two and New Jersey lost one. As reliable data becomes available we will change the colors and totals to reflect the changing electoral landscape. The Map was revised nearly sixty times during 2008 as fortunes climbed and fell. Rasmussen and Gallup are designated Gold Standard polls. Other polls such as Surveys USA or Battleground are designated as Silver Standard. It takes a compilation of three Silver Standard polls to contradict a Gold Standard poll. Any media commissioned poll is designated Bronze Standard. Five Bronze Standard polls are needed to over turn a Gold Standard.
A Note About Blue And Red
Since the earliest days of the British Tory Party four hundred years ago, its politicians have been identified by the blue violets worn on their coats on election day. The Liberal Party, since replaced by the Labour Party identifies its candidates with a red rose. Thus, the standard employed world wide for over a century in political mapping is that conservative political parties are charted in blue and liberal political parties are charted in red. Despite the reverse color schemes employed by the liberally-biased U.S. media since 1992, on this page and throughout this website Republican states are blue and Democratic states are red.