Special Or Recall Elections
Wisconsin
Scott Walker Vs. Tom Barrett
Election June 5, 2012
Following Gov. Scott Walker's signing of Wisconsin's historic Budget Repair Bill, organized labor threw an epic fit. First they organized massive and destructive demonstrations. They then tried and failed to oust a Supreme Court justice before the court could rule the bill constitutional. They then tried and failed to wrest control of the State Senate through the recall process. Now they are after the governor and lieutentant governor, also vis the recall process. Labor managed to collect the required 900,000 signatures to recall both Gov. Scott Walker and Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch. They face the voters on June 5. Tom Barrett will challenge for the Democrats. Though he was the favorite of party leaders, organized labor did not support him. They preferred a former county executive named Kathleen Falk. Enthusiasm will play a critical role in the election and the primary gave an important indication of where it lies. Despite having no opponent, Walker drew more votes in the Republican primary than did Barrett and Falk put together. Organized labor is not happy and that means they could limit cash flow. In addition, the Democratic National Committee has closed its checkbook here too, to the consternation of Wisconsin Democrats. They have a legendary get out the vote machine, but its starved for cash. Early polls show Walker leads Barrett by about the same margin he defeated him by nineteen months ago.
Outlook:Leans Republican
Regular Elections
Delaware
Jack Markell Vs. Jeff Cragg
Gov. Jack Markell may well be America's most incompetent chief executive. He has completely lost control of the executive branch to organized labor and their cronies in the legislature, which in turn has run roughshod over him. His tenure as chair of the Democratic Governor's Association ended with the loss of one third of the membership in 2010. The size of state government has grown more than fifteen percent on his watch. But Delaware has no VHF television station, no radio that spans the entire state and only one newspaper that circualtes state wide and it is essentially owned and operated by the Democratic Party. So Markell's failings have been well insulated from the voters. For that reason, one of the nation's least successful governors actually enjoys one of the highest approval ratings of any governor, regularly flirting with sixty percent. That's the challenge facing independent businessman Jeff Cragg, a self made millionaire who is taking on a challenge no other Republican wanted. Though a bit slow out of the gate, Cragg has organized a well prepared and energetic campaign that should be able to land some solid shots on Markell. The problem given Delaware's media environment, will be getting anyone to notice. Cragg plans a massive social media campaign to fight against the media. But it will be an uphill fight. Barring a disaster that Markell and the press can't hide from the public, Markell starts the campaign a heavy favorite.
Outlook:Likely Democratic
Indiana
Mike Pence Vs. John Gregg
Rep. Mike Pence will be the Republican nominee after his only potential opponent was removed from the ballot. Pence resigned a high profile House leadership position earlier this year in anticipation of this campaign. John Gregg, a former state House Speaker is seeking the Democratic nomination and is unopposed. Both seek to replace retiring Gov. Mitch Daniels, who is term limited. Daniels began his tenure highly unpopular after his sale of the state's toll roads. But his reforms succeeded wildly and he earned an easy re election in 2008. He remains very popular today and Pence should benefit from that. In the only poll of a potential Pence-Gregg race taken so far, Pence leads 44%-31%. They will be joined on the ballot by Libertarian nominee Rupert Boneham, who's main claim to fame is being voted off various Survivor islands three different times. Come election day, it's likely the last burning torch will belong to Mike Pence
Outlook:Likely Republican
Missouri
Jay Nixon Vs. Republican TBD
Governor Jay Nixon is likely to seek a second term as Governor of Missouri. He sought the office in 2004 and was defeated, then came back and defeated former Rep. Kenny Hulshof in 2008 after never shutting his campaign machine down. There's bad news and good news for Nixon as he begins his effort. The bad news is that he is unpopular. His approval ratings troll in the mid forties and he cannot draw more than mid forties support against any Republican in the race. The good news is that no well known Republican has emerged to challenge him. Hulshof is sitting this one out, as Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, who is seeking re-election rather than a promotion. State Treasurer Sarah Steelman has opted to take on Sen. Claire McCaskill. Two little known businessmen, Bill Randles and Dave Spence. Nixon leads both in polling by twenty point margins. But Nixon himself cannot clear fifty percent, meaning that if either Republican can gain traction, this can become a race. Add to that the fact that Barack Obama, who will have top spot on the ballot, has become very unpopular here and Nixon will not have a cakewalk this fall.
Outlook:Leans Democratic
Montana
Democratic TBD Vs. Republican TBD
Montana is a normally heavily Republican state that does have a tendency to vote for moderate Democrats. One such is Gov. Brian Schweitzer, who is term limited is such a Democrat. State Attorney General Steve Bullock and Heather Margolis, who works for a community service organization are seeking the Democratic nomination to replace Schweitzer. Seven Republicans are seeking that nomination, led by former U.S. Rep. Rick Hill. No polling exists as yet for this race, but the mood of the electorate here is overwhelmingly blue. Both Barack Obama and Sen. Jon Tester are trailing badly in this state. That does not always carry over to a gubernatorial election, where voters are more interested in competence than ideology. But it does not bode well for Bullock in the fall.
Outlook:Leans Republican
New Hampshire
Democratic TBD Vs. Republican TBD
In the Granite State, popular four term incumbent governor John Lynch will not seek another term, opting for retirement. Three Democrats; former State Senator Jackie Cilley, former Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan and retired Air Force officer and firefighter Bill Kennedy are seeking the Democratic nomination. Two Republicans, former Senate and gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne and former State Representative Kevin Smith are seeking their party's nomination. The only polls of the race so far testing multiple combinations of candidates shows that all the candidates have name recognition problems. A primary will occur here in September.
Outlook:Leans Republican
North Carolina
Democratic TBD Vs. Pat McCrory
Democrats have won five straight gubernatorial elections in this state, one of the last places in the old South where the Democratic Party has shown any strength in the past two decades. But Governor Beverly Perdue has become so unpopular that in 2010, voters gave Republicans control of the Legislature for the first time since Reconstruction. Now Perdue, reading the writing on the wall, has chosen not to seek a second term. Perdue's spring announcement caught the party off guard and Democrats are now scrambling to find a candidate. Lt. Gov Walter Dalton is seeking the party's nomination. He is joined by five other candidates, the best known of which is former Rep. Bob Etheridge. For the Republicans, the consensus candidate is 2008 nominee, former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. McCrory narrowly lost in 2008 when Obama carried the state for the Democrats for the first time since 1976. General election polls show McCrory with a healthy lead over Dalton and all other Democrats.
Outlook:Likely Republican
North Dakota
Jack Dalrymple Vs. Ryan Taylor
Jack Dalrymple succeeded Gov. John Hoeven when Hoeven was elected to the Senate in 2010. He is running for a full four year term. Ryan Taylor was nominated at the State Party convention in March to run for the Democrats. Taylor is the State Senate Minority Leader. The party's 2000 nominee and former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp considered a run, but decided instead to run for U.S. Senate. No polling is available for this race at this point, but North Dakota, though it has sent Democrats to the Senate for years, is a Republican dominated state. Dalrymple is popular and should win easy re-election
Outlook:Likely Republican
Utah
Gary Herbert Vs. Peter Cooke
Utah is perhaps the nation's most Republican state. Gov. Gary Herbert succeeded Gov. Jon Huntsman when Huntsman was named to be Ambassador to China. Herbert then easily won a special election in 2010 to complete Huntsman's term. He now will seek a full term of his own. Herbert beat back a Tea Party challenge at the state convention and now will face the Democrat in the fall. He will face retired Major General Peter Cooke, who won the Democratic nomination uncontested. No polls have been taken of this race, but its likely that Herbert will easily win and possibly win more than seventy percent.
Outlook:Solid Republican
Vermont
Peter Shumlin Vs. Republican TBD
First term Gov. Peter Shumlin is expected to seek a second two year term. He narrowly defeated Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubhe in 2010. Dubhe has declined another run has is the current Lt. Gov. Philip Scott. Two Republicans are seeking the nomination. Former State Senator and State Auditor Randy Brock has declared his candidacy as has newspaper editor Roy Newton. Only one poll has been taken of the race, suggesting that Shumlin has a big edge and should cruise to a second two year term.
Outlook:Likely Democratic
Washington
Candidates To Be Determined
Governor Christine Gregoire has decided not to seek a third term. She actually lost her first bid for governor in 2004, but a rigged recount confined to Democratic areas reversed that defeat and made her governor. She won a second term by a narrow margin in 2008. Rep. Jay Inslee is the only declared Democrat thus far. Washington Attorney General Rob McKenna is the best known Republican. Voters will select two candidates in a blanket primary on August 7, 2012. Those two candidates will advance to the general election. Two candidates of the same party could face each other.
Outlook:Leans Democratic
West Virginia
Earl Ray Tomblin Vs. Republican TBD
Earl Ray Tomblin became acting governor of West Virginia when Gov. Joe Manchin was elected to succeed the late Sen. Robert Byrd in a special election. Tomblin, as Senate President, under West Virginia's Constitution became acting governor. Tomblin then last year won a special election to fill the remainder of Manchin's term. Tomblin narrowly won that election against businessman Bill Maloney. Maloney has already filed papers for a rematch after losing by less than 8,000 votes. Tomblin starts a race against Maloney this time with a 60%-32% lead.
Outlook:Likely Democratic